The escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have raised global concerns over fuel prices, particularly with disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is one of the most critical oil transit routes in the world, with roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption passing through it each day. When access to the Strait is threatened or restricted, even temporarily, it creates immediate uncertainty in global oil supply. Because oil is traded on a global market, even the risk of disruption can drive prices upward.
That volatility is exactly what we’re seeing now. Crude oil prices have climbed toward $100 per barrel, and because crude oil is the primary input for gasoline and diesel, these increases directly impact prices at the pump. Even though the U.S. produces a significant amount of its own oil, it is not insulated from global pricing. Oil markets are interconnected, meaning geopolitical tensions abroad can quickly translate into higher domestic fuel costs.
San Diegans and Californians alike are already feeling the strain. With the average price of gas in California reaching $5.20 as of March 9, 2026, the highest in the nation, drivers are facing yet another financial burden on top of the state’s already high cost of living. Analysts remain uncertain about when prices will stabilize, largely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and unpredictable supply conditions.
California is especially vulnerable to these disruptions. The state has limited in-state refining capacity and relies on a specialized gasoline blend that few refineries outside the region produce. This makes it more difficult and costly to import fuel quickly when supply tightens. The recent announcements from Phillips 66 and Valero to close refineries, representing about 18% of California’s crude oil capacity, further increase pressure on the state’s fuel supply.
While gasoline inventories can help buffer short-term disruptions, recent data shows how fragile that balance can be. According to the California Energy Commission, gasoline inventories peaked at around 11.1 million barrels in early 2025, but began the period below the 10-year low, highlighting how quickly supply conditions can tighten and contribute to price volatility.
These global and local pressures affect what drivers pay at the pump and create ripple effects across the entire economy. Higher fuel costs increase transportation expenses, which in turn raise the cost of goods and services. Small businesses, trucking companies, and independent operators are often hit the hardest, as fuel remains one of their largest and most unpredictable expenses.
While businesses cannot control global events or international supply chains, they can take steps to better manage their fuel costs. In times of uncertainty, having a strategy in place is more important than ever.
If you’re looking to protect your bottom line amid rising and unpredictable fuel costs, consider signing up for an Energie Fuel Card. With access to competitive pricing, better tracking, and smarter purchasing tools, you can gain more control over your fuel spend, no matter how the market shifts.