$8 Gas in 2026? I don’t think so … But Here’s What’s Actually Going On:
Hello everyone,
Hope your week’s off to a great start.
I’ve been doing more research than ever on fuel prices this year; partly to help you customers and partly because Google now thinks I’m obsessed with the fuel industry (thanks to all my searching). So now my phone and laptop constantly feed me fuel price headlines… and one this weekend really jumped out:
Two refineries are closing, and fuel prices in 2026 could “double” to $8.00 per gallon.
Now, this popped up while I was celebrating Mother’s Day with my mom, but my brain flagged it and said: “You better look into this Monday.” So, I did.
Here’s what I found:
Yes, prices are very likely to go up in 2026.
No, I don’t think they’ll hit $8.
Two California refineries are planning major changes:
>> Phillips 66 will stop processing crude oil by the end of this year (2025). << >> Valero’s Benicia refinery is expected to shut down by the end of next year (2026). << These two account for about 20% of California’s gasoline production. So yeah, the concern is valid. The most realistic increase, in my opinion (and that of a UC Berkeley energy economist), would be about $1.00 to $1.50 more per gallon; not a double, but still a hit. The good news? The state has time to prepare. Efforts are already underway to increase import capacity, build fuel reserves, and coordinate with neighboring states. Current Retail Fuel Prices – Mid May 2025 Prices remain high in California, but they’re lower than this time last year: San Diego County · Regular Unleaded: $4.75/gal · Diesel: $4.80–$5.00/gal California (Statewide) · Regular Unleaded: $4.82/gal · Diesel: Around $5.00/gal U.S. National Averages · Regular Unleaded: ~$3.15/gal · Diesel: ~$3.51/gal Compared to May 2024, California diesel was over $5.30; so we’re down from that peak. News & Market Update Refinery Fire (Benicia, CA): On May 5, a fire broke out at the Valero refinery in Benicia. It caused gas prices to jump 10–20 cents in parts of Northern California. Southern California doesn’t usually pull fuel from there, but the news spooked the market and caused statewide wholesale prices to bump up a bit. Thankfully, the fire was contained—and if repairs go smoothly, the price impact should be short-lived. Still, it’s a reminder that all it takes is one unexpected refinery issue to spike prices. Demand & Season: May usually kicks off the summer driving season, but demand has been kinda quiet so far. Gasoline demand actually dipped slightly in early May, which has helped keep pump prices steady. Diesel demand is also soft, due to slower freight movement—so diesel prices have held pretty stable or even dipped a bit across the country. Wrapping it up: No price spikes right now. No panic about $8 gas just yet. But change is coming in 2026, so it’s smart to plan ahead. At Energie Fuel, we’ll keep doing our part to help businesses stay ahead of it all. With access to wholesale pricing and solid fuel management tools that offer both savings and peace of mind. Have a great week ahead. Chris. #FuelMarketUpdate #GasPrices #DieselPrices #CaliforniaFuel #SanDiegoBusiness #FleetManagement #FuelNews #FuelInsights #SmallBusinessTips #WholesaleFuel #EnergyTrends #TransportationIndustry #FleetSolutions #CFN #Corpay #LakeviewPetroleum #KeepHammering #EnergieFuel #FuelSmart #PlanAhead #BusinessFuelSavings #RefineryNews #DriveSafe